June 16 is the real macro danger day

Bank of Japan ends its meeting on June 16 and markets are pricing around 80% chance of a hike to 1 percent

If Japan hikes it can pressure global liquidity yen carry trades tech stocks and crypto

Then on June 17 Kevin Warsh leads his first Fed decision as Chair

Fed statement 2pm ET press conference 230pm ET

Strong US jobs data has made the Fed setup more hawkish because strong employment plus sticky inflation means less room for rate cuts and more risk of higher yields

My speculative call

If BoJ hikes and Warsh sounds hawkish risk assets can dump fast

Crypto only survives if Warsh uses soft language like data dependent financial stability liquidity support or no urgent need to hike

This week is not about charts only

It is about Japan liquidity plus Fed tone

What do you think crash first or fake dump then pump